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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
few days.  By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A well-defined low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Hanna, has emerged over the Gulf of Honduras near Roatan. This
system is producing scattered showers across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacant areas of northern Honduras, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-levels winds are somewhat
favorable, proximity to land is expected to prevent any significant
redevelopment of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. The system is forecast to move inland over Belize
and northern Guatemala by Wednesday morning, ending any chance for
redevelopment after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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