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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. While no significant development of this system appears
likely during the next day or two, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early
next week.  This disturbance should move generally west-
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, and
interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are not
favorable, and significant development of this system remains
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

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