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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Visible satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure 
located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming 
better organized.  Environmental conditions appear generally 
conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while 
it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic.  This system is expected to be near or north of the 
northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there 
should monitor its progress. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean and Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to move across the Yucatan 
Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday, and then track over the Bay of 
Campeche late Tuesday through Wednesday.  Some slow development of 
this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle 
of the week.  Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and 
gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi