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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low 
pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Further development 
is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form later today 
or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move very slowly 
west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico for the next several days. Interests along the 
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the south coast of 
Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward to 
northwestward near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster D. Zelinsky