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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low 
pressure far to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula have not improved in organization since earlier today.  
Environmental conditions remain favorable for development of this 
system and a tropical depression is likely to develop during the 
next day or so as the low drifts slowly northward or northwestward 
well off the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of 
the Baja California Peninsula remain disorganized.  Additional 
development of this system appears unlikely over the next day or two 
before it is absorbed by a larger area of disturbed weather (EP98) 
to its south-southwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico late this week.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for additional development of the system 
thereafter and a tropical depression could form by early next week 
as the system moves generally west-northwestward, just offshore of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema