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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
An area of disturbed weather associated with a sharp trough of low 
pressure is located several hundred miles offshore of southwest 
Mexico and continues to show signs of organization, with earlier 
satellite wind data indicating the surface circulation was better 
defined than earlier. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in 
the next day or so. The system is forecast to drift westward into 
Tuesday, then turn west-northwestward thereafter, remaining over the 
open waters of the central to western part of the Eastern Pacific. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Just South of of the Baja California Peninsula:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of 
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a small, but concentrated area of 
showers and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data also 
indicated there was a weak surface circulation. Some additional 
development is possible over the next day or two before it merges 
with a larger area of disturbed weather, (EP98), to its southwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop off the 
southwest coast of Mexico near the end of the week. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development 
of the system thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the 
early portion of next week as the system moves generally 
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Papin