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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A low pressure system located several hundred miles east of the 
Leeward Islands, has become better defined with showers and 
thunderstorms becoming better organized this afternoon. If these 
trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical 
depression or storm later today or tonight. The system is expected 
to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward into the 
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands. 
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased but remain disorganized in 
association with a tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean 
Sea.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10 to 
15 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico 
and the Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic 
beginning tonight.  The system is then expected to slow down and 
turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic late 
this week.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be more 
conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the 
Bahamas.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the 
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas 
should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter Aircraft is en route to perform a system survey to gather 
data from the surrounding environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.




High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Forecaster Kelly