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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is 
producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity displaced well to 
the southwest of the surface center. The system is expected to 
encounter more hostile environmental conditions and cooler waters 
this weekend while moving slowly west-northwestward, and further 
development appears unlikely. 
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south 
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the 
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves 
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Reinhart