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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Overnight satellite-derived surface wind data indicated that the 
system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California Peninsula does not have a well-defined 
surface circulation.  Shower and thunderstorm activity is producing 
winds below gale force and remains displaced to the west of a broad 
area of low pressure.  This system, however, could still become a 
short-lived tropical depression before it encounters progressively 
cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, stable airmass over 
the weekend, which will inhibit any further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a 
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is 
associated with a trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form by early to mid-next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel 
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Roberts