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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in 
association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, 
and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves 
north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern 
Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this 
system as watches or warnings could be required later today. For 
additional information, including gale warnings, please see High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands have 
become less organized over the past 24 hours, and the system is 
currently being affected by strong wind shear. No development is 
expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of 
strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable 
environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, 
and some slow development is possible during that time. By the 
middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to 
be unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.




High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Forecaster Hagen