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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of 
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located 
about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of 
this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this 
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the 
southwestern Atlantic.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the 
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on 
Saturday.  For additional information, including gale warnings, 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain 
disorganized.  While there is still some chance that a short-lived 
tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system 
is expected to move through a less conducive environment into 
Saturday.  The wave could reach a slightly more favorable 
environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches 
the Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.




High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Forecaster Blake