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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward 
Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could 
form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the 
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Satellite-derived surface wind data from earlier today revealed that 
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several 
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands lacks a closed 
surface circulation.  Environmental conditions appear marginally 
favorable for additional development over the next day or so while 
the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph and a 
short-lived tropical depression could form.  By the end of the 
week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable 
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Bucci