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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across eastern 
Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua and adjacent marine areas.  This 
system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Wednesday with no significant increase in 
organization.  Some development of this system is possible after it 
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while 
the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower 
and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.  Some limited 
tropical or subtropical development is possible through early 
Wednesday as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the 
Gulf Stream.  The system is expected to move northward over cooler 
waters later on Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Blake