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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower 
and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.  Some limited 
tropical or subtropical development is possible through early 
Wednesday as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the 
Gulf Stream.  The system is expected to move northward over cooler 
waters later on Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. North-Central Gulf:
A surface trough near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and 
Alabama is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  While development of this system is not anticipated 
before it moves inland later today or tonight, locally heavy 
rainfall could produce flash flooding across portions of the 
northern Gulf coast over the next day or so.  For more information 
on the rainfall hazards related to this system, please see products 
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



Forecaster Berg