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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is producing disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.  Some 
limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the 
next day or two as the low drifts westward near the relatively warm 
waters of the Gulf Stream.  By the middle of this week, the system 
is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances 
for further tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central Atlantic:
A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central 
Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level disturbance, producing 
scattered disorganized showers.  Development of this system is not 
expected as it drifts generally northward over the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

3. Northeastern Gulf:
A surface trough in the north-central Gulf is associated with a 
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  While 
development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland 
on Tuesday, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding 
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern 
Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana over the next day or so.  For 
more information on the rainfall hazards related to this system, 
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service 
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header 
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on 
Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and 
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.


Forecaster Hagen