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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface and radar observations indicate that a broad area of low 
pressure is moving westward across the Florida Panhandle between 
Tallahassee and Panama City. The associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity is disorganized and located mainly south and southwest of 
the center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and 
could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central 
portion of the Gulf later today or tonight, reaching the coast of 
Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, 
environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable 
for additional development, and a tropical depression could still 
form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully 
inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized 
flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today.  
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the 
north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through 
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued 
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather 
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Beven