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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has 
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is 
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further 
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form 
near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend 
if the low remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and 
southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal 
sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Blake