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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles 
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with 
an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
Environmental conditions appear marginal for further development of 
this system over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to 
move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the western 
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of 
Central America is producing some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this 
system later this week, and environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely 
to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days, 
remaining offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 


Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Forecaster Bucci