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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Corrected formation chances to medium in last two paragraphs

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Sam, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. An elongated area of low pressure associated with the remnants of 
Peter is located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.  
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have changed 
little in organization since yesterday.  However, environmental 
conditions are marginally conducive for some further development, 
and Peter could briefly become a tropical depression again during 
the next day or two while it moves northeastward near 10 mph.  
By midweek, environmental conditions are expected to become 
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad 
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave is moving offshore the west coast of Africa and 
into the far eastern tropical Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form in a few days while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Pasch




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