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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, 
Mexico, continue to show some signs of organization.  Although 
recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation remains 
broad, environmental conditions are conducive for additional 
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical 
depression during the next day or so while it moves generally 
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of 
Mexico. Regardless of development, outer rainbands from the 
disturbance are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty 
winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco 
through Tuesday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A small low pressure area located about 900 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development, if any, of 
this system is likely to be slow over the next day or two while it 
drifts northward.  After that time, environmental conditions are 
expected to become unfavorable for further development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

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