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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a 
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of 
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical 
characteristics.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
likely to form later today or tonight.  This system is expected to 
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder 
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for 
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are 
associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of 
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while 
it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression 
could form late in the week when the system moves northward into 
the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern 
Mexico during the next several days.  Please consult products from 
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some development 
of this system is possible during the next few days before a 
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any 
chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical 
Atlantic Ocean late week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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