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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the 
central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and 
central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of 
organization.  In addition, surface observations indicate that 
pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with 
wind and satellite data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure 
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, and it 
could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida 
tonight.  But if not, the disturbance is expected to become a 
tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over 
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.  
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce 
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, 
and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests 
there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should 
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the 
north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure. 
Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves 
westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf 
of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located a few hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is forecast, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days 
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across 
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is located just off of the west 
coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions could support development 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over 
the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system 
moves slowly westward.  Upper-level winds could become less 
conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg




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