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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on 
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern 
Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas 
eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic.   This 
system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the 
Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  Upper-level winds are expected to 
become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could 
form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.  Regardless 
of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy 
rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the 
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico.  Although the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system 
is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the 
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo 
Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is forecast, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days 
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across 
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

4. Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical 
wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form 
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the 
system moves slowly westward.  Upper-level winds could become less 
conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg




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