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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in 
association with a tropical wave currently located over the central 
Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of this system is possible 
over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph 
across the central Caribbean Sea.  After that time, the wave is 
forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form later this week when the system 
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure, located about 1000 miles east of 
the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of 
showers and thunderstorms. Although recent satellite-derived wind 
data indicates that the low is not well-defined, environmental 
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the 
system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the 
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.  Interests 
in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and 
Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some 
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern 
Atlantic on Friday.  By early next week, however, conditions are 
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation 
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto




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