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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Ten-E, located more than 1500 miles west-southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a small 
area of showers. This system has moved over colder waters and 
further development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. A large area of persistent showers and thunderstorms associated with 
an area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The 
disturbance does not appear to have developed a well-defined center 
yet, but conditions are expected to be favorable for further 
development today and tomorrow, and tropical depression is likely to 
form during that time. This system is forecast to move slowly 
north-northwestward or northward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to show signs of development. A broad 
and elongated closed low pressure system has formed, and the 
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to organize 
into bands. Although recent satellite-derived wind data indicate 
that the system does not yet have a well-defined center, environment 
conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical 
depression or tropical storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky




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