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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to 
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to 
become a tropical depression during the next few days while it 
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.  Although this 
system has changed little in organization today, gradual 
development is possible and a tropical depression could form 
during the next couple of days.  The disturbance is forecast to 
move westward over cooler waters later this week, which should 
inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms located a few 
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are 
associated with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become conducive for development in a couple of days,   
and the system is likely to become a tropical depression by this 
weekend while the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel 
to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system 
over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the 
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake




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