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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the
wave moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea
just south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of
circulation. This system is expected to move slowly west-
northwestward and significant development is unlikely due to
strong upper-level winds. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi




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