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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the southwestern part of the basin.

1. A small area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better
organized.  Any significant increase in organized thunderstorm
activity will likely result in the formation of a tropical
depression tonight or tomorrow.  Beyond mid week, strong upper-level
winds from the system to the east could inhibit further development
while the low moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Thunderstorm activity associated with a larger low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is also becoming better organized, with
satellite-derived winds indicating that the circulation is also
better defined. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a day or two as the system moves west-
northwestward near or a short distance offshore of the coast of
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and showers near and just west of
Central America is associated with a tropical wave.  Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible along the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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