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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of
Cape Canaveral, Florida.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association
with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next two to three days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low and a weak
surface trough.  Little, if any, development of this system is
expected before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast
tonight or Tuesday.  Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall along portions of Texas coast
later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown




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