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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located a little over 100 miles south of Charleston, South
Carolina, on Tropical Depression Fernand, located inland over
eastern Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located several
hundred miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A small area of low pressure located about 200 miles northeast of
Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms well to the southeast
of the center. Only a small decrease in the upper level winds could
result in the formation of a tropical depression in the next day or
so. However, by Saturday upper-level winds are forecast to increase
even further, making conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over
the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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