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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located just north of western Grand Bahama Island.

1. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low
pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is becoming better defined.  Associated thunderstorm
activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles
east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico, is showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward toward Mexico.  Interests along the
northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.  A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days.  Afterward, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at

Forecaster Stewart

List of Atlantic Outlooks (July 2014 - present)
List of East Pacific Outlooks (July 2014 - present)
List of Central Pacific Outlooks (June 2019 - present)
List of Atlantic Outlooks (June 2009 - June 2014)
List of East Pacific Outlooks (June 2009 - June 2014)