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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical
depression is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
3. Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.