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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure. This system has not become any better organized since
yesterday, and the chances of tropical cyclone formation are
diminishing.  The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
just off the southwestern coast of Mexico bringing locally heavy
rainfall along portions of that area during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is already merging with the
disturbance to its north. Development of this system is becoming
less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A disorganized area of disturbed weather continues to be located a
little less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

List of Atlantic Outlooks (July 2014 - present)
List of East Pacific Outlooks (July 2014 - present)
List of Central Pacific Outlooks (June 2019 - present)
List of Atlantic Outlooks (June 2009 - June 2014)
List of East Pacific Outlooks (June 2009 - June 2014)