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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization.  This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico.  Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form in the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Azores in about two days.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for some development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the low moves
erratically over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake




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