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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity several hundred miles south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This system has not become
better organized during the past 24 hours.  However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to consolidate and
develop during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the early or middle part of next week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the central Caribbean Sea.  Development is expected to be slow
during the next day or two as the disturbance moves west-
northwestward at about 15 mph across the western Caribbean.  By the
end of the weekend or early next week, environmental conditions
appear more conducive for development when the system moves near or
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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