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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.  Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week.  This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
west of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are not favorable, and significant
development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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