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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM PDT Wed Sep 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion of the 
low pressure area southwest of southwestern Mexico.

1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Updated:  Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure 
system located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, 
continue to show signs of organization.  The chances for this low 
to merge with another area of disturbed weather to its 
east-southeast appear to be decreasing, and the system is likely to 
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while 
meandering southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of 
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a 
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions would be 
conducive for development if the system remains offshore, and a 
tropical depression could form while moving little off the southern 
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and then moving 
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern 
Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 

Forecaster Berg

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