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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM PDT Wed Sep 14 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion of the
low pressure area southwest of southwestern Mexico.
1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure
system located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. The chances for this low
to merge with another area of disturbed weather to its
east-southeast appear to be decreasing, and the system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while
meandering southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions would be
conducive for development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form while moving little off the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and then moving
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.