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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing an area of 
showers and thunderstorms to the southwest of its center.  Although 
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some 
additional development is possible during the next day or two. The 
system is forecast to move little through midweek, then merge 
with the disturbance to its east. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico 
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is 
forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental 
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for additional 
development over the next several days.  A tropical depression is 
likely to form by the latter part of this week while the system 
moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 

Forecaster Brown

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