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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located near the
west-central coast of Mexico.  Some additional development of this
system is possible and a short-lived tropical depression could form
on Sunday before it moves inland by Sunday night.  Regardless of
whether or not this system becomes a tropical depression, heavy
rainfall associated with this disturbance could produce flash
flooding and mudslides across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and
Jalisco, especially in areas of mountainous terrain, during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern Pacific basin is also producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system should be
slow to occur while it drifts westward during the next few days.
This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin by
late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

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