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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala
border remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph
parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Moisture associated with the low
is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions
are not expected to be conducive for development while the system
moves slowly westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Berg




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