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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua, southwestern
Honduras, and eastern El Salvador will move westward into the
eastern Pacific Ocean later this evening. The combination of the
wave and a strong northerly wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is expected to develop a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
Thursday or early Friday while the system moves west-northwestward
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity.  Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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