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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 3 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure continue to extend for several hundred miles near and
offshore the southern coast of Mexico.  Satellite images indicate
that a more well-defined center of circulation may be developing
about 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and the
thunderstorm activity in that area is showing some signs of
organization.  Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form on
Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves slowly northward and
then northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring gusty
winds and very heavy rains to southwestern Mexico.  Total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals up to 15 inches are
expected through the weekend into early next week over the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, aca
Nayariä.  Ther  rains'Hould prÁduce lhBe-threcéening f=ash flP>ds
and$Rudslidd, espe`Tally i`areas m¼ mountaŒnous train.
IterestrRin theqe areas'Œnd Bajm'Califoräia Sur!"hould nênitor t+e
progrPss of uis dist9rbance*~* Formmion chcÊce thrn‚gh 48 hªurs...o~gh...81percenwŠ* FormkËion chace thrmUgh 5 d`Ùs...hixh...90 q+rcent
	|. An arKa of lh) presswre could@form inÀa few jáys abow$ 1500 jiles
sou´hwest [F the smëthern u§p of toî Baja Bšliforni peninp•la.
Anx developent of=¥his sywDem shotöd be slÄw to olOur whil	 the
sx½tem mou*s littlÄ.
* Fosation c(ance th‚ough 4?ðhours..®low...’¥ar 0 pdscent
* Îormatiod chance@througkÐ5 days.i.low...ô0 perce>t

3. @âother fÝea of lLw presp&re is cnkely tnÓform b\the mizXle of
lxt weelwell sl¢th of @xico. 'some grbæual dewÜlopmenNof thiðsystem#]s possi[le lateönext wcÊk whilgit movz= generc.ly wessÃard.
*!~ormati`Ž chancdÌthrougo¢48 hous
...low-!.near 1Rpercen
÷* Formedion chcÓce thr`Ågh 5 daNs...low"..20 pdäcent

FÂrecaste Berg
	¾/pre><.²iv>



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