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NHC Graphical Outlook Archive

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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

1100 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with an area of low pressure located about 150 miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better organized during the
past few hours. In addition, satellite data indicate that the
low-level circulation has become better defined this morning.
A tropical depression is expected to form later today or Thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest at around 10 mph.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rains over coastal portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides during the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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