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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical 
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the 
Azores Islands.

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. 
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while 
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and 
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the 
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. 
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress 
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be 
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air 
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this 
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the 
southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible 
during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern 
Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed 
into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late 
Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation, 
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days 
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, 
eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi