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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. 
Gradual development of this system is expected over the next several 
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week 
while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the 
central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land 
areas of the western Caribbean during the next few days, including 
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure extending from near Puerto Rico eastward 
over the adjacent waters of the Atlantic is producing a large area 
of showers and thunderstorms near and over portions of the Greater 
Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Slow development is possible 
during the next couple of days while the system moves 
west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. Then, this system is 
expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the 
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are 
possible during the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands 
westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the 
southeastern Bahamas. For more information on this system, including 
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
near a low pressure system centered a few hundred miles 
west-northwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions could allow 
for additional development today and tonight, and the system could 
become a short-lived subtropical or tropical storm while it moves 
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast 
to become unfavorable for further development by late this weekend. 
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. 
For more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

Forecaster Reinhart