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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure 
located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain 
disorganized.  Some slow development is possible during the next 
couple of days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to 
west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands 
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern 
Bahamas on Saturday.  Strong upper-level winds should end the 
chances of development by late in the weekend.  The Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are 
associated with a broad area of low pressure.   Gradual development 
of this system is possible over the next couple of days before it 
moves inland over Central America.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America 
and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi/Hadi