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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain 
disorganized.  Some slow development is possible during the next few 
days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west-northwestward 
around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on 
Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on 
Saturday.  Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of 
development by late in the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are 
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Some gradual 
development is possible over the next couple of days before it moves 
inland over Central America.  Regardless of development, locally 
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi/Hadi