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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located over the central 
tropical Atlantic is producing occasional showers and 
thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a dry air 
environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of 
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward 
and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable 
for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A 
tropical depression could form as the system begins moving 
west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands 
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some 
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over 
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern 
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall 
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly