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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

1. Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is 
producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.  A broad area 
of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the 
southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or 
two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low 
moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical 
depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of 
next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that 
is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. 
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy 
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days 
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into 
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of 
Africa on Monday or Tuesday.  Some development of this system is 
possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Beven