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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support some gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader 
disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the 
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so 
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Beven